SWOT of Thomas Cook

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Thomas Cook is one of the leading travel groups in the world. It is the third largest integrated tourism group in the world, behind domestic rival TUI and the UK group MyTravel (formerly Airtours). ‘Thomas Cook serves some 14 million customers, owns 0 tour operators and around ,600 travel agencies selling the groups products worldwide, has 7,000 beds under control, a fleet of 85 aircraft and a workforce numbering some 8,000.' (Travel and Tourism Company profile- Thomas Cook, 00) It ‘is owned by Deutsche Lufthansa AG (50%) and KarstadtQuelle AG (50%)' (Thomas Cook Sharholder Structure), which created C &N Touristic in 18. Its customers spread over Germany, Great Britain, Ireland, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Egypt, India and Canada. The pre-tax consolidated income of Thomas Cook on the third quarter of 00 is €7,50,000.

Strengths

Customers can create their own holiday on internet. Thomas Cook AG allows customers to create their own holidays by bundling flights and hotels on their web site- Thomascook.com (BRIEFS, Marketing (UK), 00). It is more flexible and desirable that customers can choose the hotel and flights on their preference rather than paying for fixed package holidays. Also, customers will be attracted as it is more convenient for them to have their booking online.

Thomas Cook has its own airlines and three charter airlines. Those charter airlines are, the SunExpress, providing flights with the Turkish Airline to Turkey; the Thomas Cook Airline UK, the second-biggest charter carrier in Britain and the Thomas Cook powered by Condor, which offers an extensive network. The Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium is the own airline of Thomas Cook. ‘These airlines serve more than sixty international destinations in Europe, Asia, Africa and America and operating an extensive route network with flights from twenty-one airports in Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland.' (A Short Portrait, 00) This enables Thomas Cook to provide cheaper deals, for example, hotels and flights, which help to attract customers that have low budget for their holidays. As it has its own airlines, to and from different countries, this helps it to adopt customers from different countries whereas other leisure companies may not able to have these competitive advantages.

It implemented functional software, the MicroStrategy platform to help staff to do their job better (See appendix 1). The MicroStrategy platform consists of a number of business intelligence applications, including the management information reporting system, revenue management analysis, sales analysis and customer call center applications. It also helps to reduce the number of workforce for running the business, i.e. reduce the costs of running the business.

Weaknesses

It is concentrate on one industry and not sufficiently diversifies. As Thomas Cook AG is formed by many vertical mergers (A Short Portrait, 00); it remains in the same industry rather than expanding to another one. This causes lack of diversify products and services, and, cannot provide wide range of products and services to adopt more consumers.

Most of its airlines are charter airlines. Charter Airlines charged for lower prices. However, it leads to lower quality of services and products. For example, free meals and drinks are not provided on board. Also, the schedule of flights are limited, customers might have fewer choice for the time to board.

Opportunities

It is possible for Thomas Cook AG to expand their charter airline companies and travel to more countries, which allows them to attract more customers from more countries in the world (See appendix ). Larger Planes can be introduced to carry more passengers in one time; the company can grow without adding plenty of flights this can help to reduce the costs of the company.

Threats

Macroeconomic environment deeply affect the price of their products and the turnover of the company, i.e. weak economy (see appendix ), terror attacks, wars and diseases. For example, as a result of Iraq war, SARS outbreak in Asia and hot summer, holidaymakers deferring or canceling their travel plans (Thomas Cook in Upbeat Mood, 17/06/00) which leads to the holiday price fell by 5.4% while turnover dropped 11.6% as a result of hot summer, Iraq war and SARS (Manny, 00). Due to the undesirable situation of the macro-economies, the pre-tax consolidate income of Thomas Cook is -€54,601,000 on the year ended 0 July, 00(See appendix 4).

Government policy will affect the growth and development of the company. Transport in United Kingdom is zero rated in VAT. However, European Commission plans to impose VAT on package holidays (See appendix 5) which would cost travel agencies in United Kingdom five billion pounds and five thousands of employees could be made redundant.

Competitors might also launch its own airlines or co-operate with other airline companies and provide cheap tickets in order to gain market share. For example, Air 000 Ltd and First Choice Holidays.

Bibliography

Post A. (14), Anatomy of a merger the causes and effects of mergers and acquisitions, Prentice Hall, London

Company History, 00, MyTravel Group Plc, viewed on 0/11/00

http//www.mytravelgroup.com/History.htm

Group Organisation, 00, Thomas Cook, viewed on 0/11/00

http//www.thomascook.info/tck/de/en/abu/0,77,0-0-84064,00.html

MyTravel shares dive, 06/11/00, BBC News, viewed on 0/11/00

http//news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4871.stm

MyTravel sells US business, /10/00, BBC News, viewed on 0/11/00

http//news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/085.stm

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Hi ho

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Music is a reflection of society, and will always evolve as society does. Composers have always sought to push the bounds of conventional harmony, and tonality, as a way of further expressing themselves. Composers such as Schopan, Strauss, Berg, Busconi, Stravinsky, Debussy, and others, all attempted to create something new, and exciting whether they used a traditional framework or not. They all attempt to further the musical concepts of the time; it is this concept of art for art's sake that is fundamental to understanding the importance of these contributions. These composers were no longer concerned with the audience, they no longer cared about the audience, they moved away from creating music for someone else and decided to create music solely for themselves. This is the probably the most important basic development that occurred during this period of 180-10. Along this same line, the actual musical technique evolved at this time, and will be important to observe. Likewise, we will examine the social changes occurring at the time, and see how the changing society influenced the composers and music of the time.

We should beginning this discussion with a brief description of how the technical methods that the composers utilized at this time evolved from what had previously occurred. The move from a rigidly structured music to one of dissonance and atonality was bound to occur. It was in essence inevitable. In further evolving music it was necessary to attempt something new, something that hadn't been tried before. This is the reason for dissonance and atonality; it was creating something new out of a concept that hadn't been explored before. "Chords containing non-harmonic tones must be incorporated into harmonic theory and recognized as valid musical materials. Non harmonic tones form chords, hence they are not non-harmonic; the musical phenomenon they help to create are harmonies, as is everything that sounds simultaneously. " Therefore we see a marked break in what composers had been doing prior to this period. Music was conceived of in very rigid terms. There were rules that had to be followed, as this was the traditional sense of music. A return to the tonic was expected, the musical plot was always returned too. The opera or musical piece was always a simple package for the audience to understand. It was expressed in very simple terms, expectation, and routine would be the best terms to describe the music and the experience at this particular time. The composers such as Stravinsky realized the importance of dissonance. They realized that it only enhanced the musical experience. They realized that dissonance was not an evil of music but rather another character to explore and add to the story. They attempted to create something new by using new theories in accordance with some of the traditional rules. For example they "preserved a fixed order within the presentation of a harmonic unit. " Therefore they didn't seek to make something completely new, but rather evolve some of the traditional aspects of harmony and dissonance, to further express themselves artistically. By furthering the practice of serialism, we certainly see how basic rules of harmony and tonality were followed but how the evolution of tone allowed for the creation of the retrograde, and the inversion, all of which gave composers more freedom of expression. It seems as if this is a pervading societal phenomenon as well.

We should go back to the quote from the book written by Schoenberg on the function of harmony as it provides the perfect segue to the more fundamentally important part of this essay. We should examine the societal implications of what was occurring at this time. This book, was written in 1, it is therefore important that we understanding what society was going through at this time, and how this is important to the understanding of technical achievements within music. The Roaring 0's was time in American history of great investment in the economy and the pervading sentiment however wrong was one of prosper. Generally when the economy is doing well, and people are able to spend more money, they generally have more time to focus there time on other things. Nothing was different for musicians, we see around the turn of the century, composers moving away from the traditional way of creating music. They no longer relied on the aristocracy for patronage rather they were able to teach, or make money through the creation of their music, they no longer needed to create music that was mundane and ordinary. They began to have the freedom to explore other avenues of music. This is certainly a reflection of the period of time we are studying. The 0's in particular were an important time for people to push boundaries. There was a brief sexual revolution; it was certainly a time when many were trying to push boundaries of normal societal action. So the music created at this time was created out of an important concept that was buttressed by the pervading social atmosphere. Composers no longer cared if everyone liked what they created, but they realized it was important to create because it was new. Much like society had shrugged off its Puritanical history, musicians too had evolved. They no longer were tied down to those who really cared nothing for their achievements. As Debussy writes in his "Conversations With M. Croche" "They [the audience] never grasp the noble dramas woven into the symphonic conflict in which one is conscious of the possibility of reaching the summit of the structure of harmony and the breathing there an atmosphere of perfect beauty. " Composers at this time knew that they were on the cusp of something incredible. They knew that by pushing the bounds of convention that they were affording themselves far more freedom of expression.

The technical side of music although fundamentally important to the full understanding of music, is certainly not what I feel as the most important aspect. An attempt was made here to show how Music reflects society and how the music at this time was pushing convention and was looking to break away from the ordinary from the mundane, and truly be something amazing, it is this point that drives this essay. The point of art for art's sake is truly an important idea that needs to be explored by artists. This concept allows them to push boundaries, and although some of the pieces we have listened to in class is more radical than others, it is the affect they have on the music that in the middle that is most important. Regardless of whether it is too far left, or too far right, by pushing the conventional boundary one makes way for the unconventional to become the standard by which to judge the conventional. To draw a parallel to government, the objective of the third party in American politics is not to win every election, because it realistically would not happen, but rather more importantly the object of the third party is to bring their issues into the American spotlight, by doing so they force the two major parties to debate the issues of the third party. Music in essence does the same thing, when musicians or composers create something entirely new the effect on the music in the middle is what is most important.

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Rates of Reaction Experiment

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Rates of Reaction Experiment Design Type

Introduction

In this experiment, Sodium Thiosulfate is reacted with Hydrochloric acid to study the affect of changing the concentration of one of the reactants, on the reaction rate. The products formed are Sodium Chloride, Water, Sulfur Dioxide and Sulfur.

NaSO(aq) + HCl(aq) = NaCl(aq) + HO + SO(aq) + S(s)

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As the precipitate of sulfur forms, it masks the cross-drawn on the filter paper and a time for the reaction to complete can be measured.

Hypothesis

As the concentration of one of the reactants in a reaction increases, reaction rate also increases.

Aim

To show the effect of concentration on rate of reaction.

Materials

M HCl(aq) x Burette Stand and clamp

0.5 M NaSO(aq) 10 mL measuring cylinder

Stop Watch x Burette

Sheet Of White Paper with a Cross (pencil) Conical Flask

Method

1. Placed 50mL of thiosulfate solution in the 50mL conical flask using the burette. Added 5mL of dilute HCl(aq) to the solution in the flask using the 10mL measuring cylinder, and at the same time started the stopwatch. Swirled the flask twice and placed it over the piece of paper with the mark on it.

. Looked vertically over the conical flask and timed the reaction by stopping the stopwatch when the cross was no longer visible.

. Rinsed the flask.

4. Repeated the experiment using 40, 0, 0 and 10mL of the thiosulfate solution made up each time to a volume of 50mL with distilled water, and still used 5mL of HCl(aq).

DIAGRAM

NB. A lab coat, safety glasses and gloves were worn during the experiment.

Results

Note Concentration of NaSO(aq) calculated before (50mL) adding to HCl (55mL).

Dilution of NaSO(aq)

Attempt 1 4 5

HO (mL) 0 10 0 0 40

NaSO(aq) (mL) 50 40 0 0 10

Concentration of NaSO(aq) (mol/L) 0.5 0. 0.15 0.1 0.05

Attempt 1 4 5

Concentration of NaSO(aq) (mol/L) 0.5 0.0 0.15 0.10 0.05

Concentration of HCl(aq) (mol/L) .00 .00 .00 .00 .00

Agitation (Swirls)

Time (s) 7.87 0.8 7. 5. 14.50

1/Time 0.0588 0.00 0.0687 0.01687 0.00745

The slope of the Concentration Vs. Time graph at two different points

m1=(y-y1)/(x-x1)

m1=(0.8-7.87)/(0.0-0.5)

m1=-48 (sf)

m=(y-y1)/(x-x1)

m=(14.5-5.)/(0.05-0.10)

m=-1.5 x 10 (sf)

The slope is steeper where the concentration of the thiosulfate solution is lower, as there are less particles in the solution for the HCl(aq) to react with to form S(s) therefore the solution requires a longer amount of time to react. The slope is shallower where the concentration is higher as there are more particles in the solution to react with HCl(aq) to form S(s) and therefore there is a higher chance of effective and frequent collisions between reactants, hence more products are formed and therefore the reaction time is shorter.

Analysis and Evaluation

The independent variable in this experiment was the Concentration of NaSO(aq).

The dependent variable in this experiment was time i.e. reaction rate.

The controlled variables in the experiment were atmospheric pressure, temperature, concentration of HCl(aq), the amount of agitation and the state of subdivision of the reactants.

The graph of Concentration of NaSO(aq) Vs. Time clearly indicates that as concentration is decreased, time for the reaction to occur increased.

The graph of the Reaction rate clearly indicates that as concentration increased, reaction rate also increased. Therefore from this experiment it is evident that reaction rate is directly proportional to the concentration of the reactants.

Random Errors

• If there are variations in eye level when taking the burette reading then the amount of thiosulfate solution will increase or decrease, and as a result the reaction rate will also increase or decrease.

• If there are variations in the ambient temperature or atmospheric pressure, then the amount of thiosulfate solution or hydrochloric acid will increase or decrease, and as a result the reaction rate will also increase or decrease.

Systematic Errors

• If the burettes and the measuring cylinder have been incorrectly calibrated by the manufacturer, then the amount of NaSO(aq) or HCl(aq) in the conical flask would have been higher or lower than required, thus the concentration of these two substances in the conical flask may have been affected, and consequently increased or decreased time.

• If a contaminated sample was used in the experiment, then the concentrations would have been affected, thus lengthening or shortening the times to react.

• The exact point where the cross disappears from sight is hard to gauge, therefore the time taken for the cross to disappear may not have been consistent.

• The amount of agitation may have varied with each attempt in the experiment.

Some improvements that could have been made to the design of the experiment to reduce errors are

• To do the experiment in a temperature controlled environment where the atmospheric temperature and pressure can be monitored for small increases or decreases and can then be rectified.

• Use a machine to agitate the solution to keep the agitation consistent.

• Repeat the experiment.

Conclusion

The Rate of reaction is directly proportional to the concentration of the reactants. As the concentration of NaSO(aq) increases, reaction rate increases.

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Using Her Big Chance and any other monologue show how the central characters reveal obliquely their personalities and circumstances.

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Bennett allows both Lesley, in Her Big Chance, and Irene, in A Lady of Letters to inform the audience of their inadequacies and situation, however this information is not blatantly confessioned. In the monologue format the slight comments and innocent detail betray the character and provide evidence of the lonely and unrewarding lives of the two women. Bennett depicts the women very differently, yet in many ways they are similar in their refusal to accept their problems.

Bennett shows both women desperately searching for a role. Lesley is portayed as forever trying to build a part. Capital letters are given to a previous unimportant part, in order to make Lesley feel more significant than she really is

Woman in a Musquash Coat.

Lesley tries to completely involve herself with all the action regarding the film. Bennett shows her insistence on adding her suggestions

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I just wanted to make it crystal clear that when I said briefcase I didnt mean the old-fashioned type ones...

Rather than admiring her persistence, we just begin to feel extremely irritated.

In A Lady of Letters Bennett stirs up irritation with Irene, in her persistent letter writing. Bennett capitalises on our initial irritation, he uses a crescendo effect continually telling us of the occasions on which Irene has felt it necessary to express herself in letters

I wrote to the crematorium...dashed off an answer forwith... I wrote to the council...

We are not told that Irene has nothing else to, although this is quite apparent. Bennett in allowing Irene to take it upon herself to produce these letters is letting her feel more important, as he does with Lesley.

The language Bennett uses for Irene indicates that perhaps she is pretentious. Irenes natural colloquial language is cleverly juxtaposed which phrases of learned speech by Bennett

..grief-stricken people do not expect to emerge from the Chapel of Rest to find grown men skulking in the rhododendrons with tab-ends in their mouths.

Bennett does not present Lesley as a pretentious character, but instead her strive to appear intellectual and cultured. This is apparent in the usage of foreign borrowings, in the Italian Ciao and the French Croissant. Technical jargon is used as part of Lesleys pretence of performance

..theres what they call a hair in the gate. Its film parlance for all clear.

Yet we are aware of Lesleys inability to act, not because she tells us, but because she is restricted to just one word in the film

..we tried it once or twice only Gunther then thought it would be more convincing if my headache was so bad I couldnt actually speak..

However, it does not seem that Lesley is actually neglecting to tell us that her line was cut here because she is such a bad actress, but that she does not tell us because she does not realise herself. Similarly in the clich

I didnt fall off the Christmas tree yesterday.

Lesley is shown pretending to be more clued up than she really is, if she knew what was happening she would not have slept with Spud.

Bennett presents Irene also believing she knows more than she really does. She believes that there is cruelty and neglect going on because there is No kiddy still and she has heard it crying. From this we learn of the way her judging things on appearances, without looking any deeper. Bennett shows this quite humorously in the fascination Irene holds for the lack of a table cover No cloth on.

Despite Irenes superficiality there is a certain degree of pathos in the situation. Bennett informs us that her so-called participation is because of she is lonely. We are told of her pen Its been a real friend, the indication here is that Irene does not infact have any friends or family that she can turn to for support. We know also that Mother bought it - there is a tone of reminiscence here that is particularly apparent on the video. The actress is almost fondling the pen. Her voice is slow and calm, with definite touch of humanity. The insinuation from all of this and Irenes current situation is that there was a certain degree of dependency between Irene and her mother.

Bennett depicts Lesleys escape from her solitude in her sleeping with numerous men. We do not really feel any sympathy towards her because she is shown to keep doing it. Bennett selects the metaphor

..the cat sitting there, watching the trout

to explain the way which Lesley falls into the trap. In this there is realisation of what she is doing, so the feelings of irritation are yet stronger. The audience can appreciate her embarrassment because of the technique that Bennett uses - glossing over the details

His rooms nicer than mine. His bathrooms got a hair-dryer.

The video shows her usual lively tone becoming quiet and slow, her body language follows the same pattern. It is obvious that Lesley has slept with this man, yet Bennett only allows her to obliquely reveal this.

It is only in the reported speech of the policeman that we comprehend all the trouble Irene has caused

Were asking you because who was it who was it wrote to the chemist saying his wife was a prostitute?

This not denied, but there is indeed a justification for it.

We learn in reported speech of the type of film Bennett has selected for Lesley, Spud talks of

...main girl...making videos...overseas market...West Germany..

To the reader/viewer this suggests porn. Lesley does not see this, Bennett again shows her lacking basic common sense. For her inadequacies Bennett refers her to an American book. One of the points in the book is purpose and use of name. Yet there is a definite over usage of names

Chess, Simon?...Well, Simon...Spectacles, Simon

This exhibits Lesleys superficially - she does not look deeper than names or appearances. If we look for the reasoning behind this we can realise that to a certain extent it is related to her job. Performance plays a big part of Lesleys life. The frequent use of the word interesting by Bennett in this monologue shows falseness and superficiality . Whereas the reason for the frequent use of the word little by Bennett establishes Irenes sense of modesty and we do not resent her in the slightest for it. Using Her Big Chance and any other monologue show how the central characters reveal obliquely their personalities and circumstances.

Please note that this sample paper on Using Her Big Chance and any other monologue show how the central characters reveal obliquely their personalities and circumstances. is for your review only. In order to eliminate any of the plagiarism issues, it is highly recommended that you do not use it for you own writing purposes. In case you experience difficulties with writing a well structured and accurately composed paper on Using Her Big Chance and any other monologue show how the central characters reveal obliquely their personalities and circumstances., we are here to assist you. Your persuasive essay on Using Her Big Chance and any other monologue show how the central characters reveal obliquely their personalities and circumstances. will be written from scratch, so you do not have to worry about its originality.

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Network design

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Logical and Physical Network Designs

This paper will be discussing the background and differences in logical and physical network designs. There will also be illustrations of actual network designs. This paper will layout why each type of network design is necessary in creating a network.

As networks become increasingly more complex and more common, designing these networks has become more complex as well. Today's networks have become larger and include newer technology that did not exist even five years ago. In order to create a network that entails every aspect of the technology in use by many corporations and to allow for future upgrades, a network design team will need to analyze and test each scenario. Using logical and physical network designs allows the team to create the best possible network for a given corporation.

The best tool for creating these networks is to create a logical network first. This design simply shows the basics for the network. The goal of this design to show what the network will look like. It does not go into detail of each piece of equipment that is connected to the network. The logical network design allows designers to show customers or supervisors what the network would look like without going in depth. This allows them to add other equipment, show routing flow, or to remove possible problems. The logical design keeps the briefing of a network easier to address issues or concerns. The diagram below will show a simple logical network design. It shows the very basics of the network.

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In the physical network design, a network is laid out in exactly the way it will look like. Each piece of equipment is shown with its IP address, the way it will connect to the network. This could be wireless, coaxial, or by CAT 5 cable. Each router in the network will be shown as well as the servers. Each data flow will be shown. The designer will have detailed icons of each item. This allows them to show users, customers and anyone that would approve of the network exactly how the network would look when it is completed. As the design is done in stages, it can be shown to the customer for possible issues. Once the design is in the physical stage, most the design issues are already cleared up. This design will be then used to begin the building of the network.

This paper has discussed the differences in Logical and physical network design. It briefly touched upon the reasons for each and what each design is used for. These two forms of network designs are needed to accomplish the design stages of a company's network. Without either, building a network would be very tough and frustrating for the IT department.

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Prodigal Summer

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Our staff of freelance writers includes over 120 experts proficient in Prodigal Summer, therefore you can rest assured that your assignment will be handled by only top rated specialists. Order your Prodigal Summer paper at affordable prices! Each chapter of the book deals with one of the three main characters and are subsequently titled, Predators, Moth Love, and Old Chestnuts. Forty-something Deanna, the predator lover, has left her small town life in the Zebulon Valley and now lives alone as a forest caretaker. Lusa, the moth lover, is a new bride who suddenly finds herself saddled with a farm and a family of strangers. Garnett, the chestnut lover, is an embittered old man who pines away for companionship and the extinct American Chestnut tree. Through the voices of Deanna and Lusa, Kingsolvers message reverberates through the towering trees and farming fields -- do not mess with nature or any of its creatures, big or small, and do not ever spray pesticides. Garnett, on the other hand, stands for destruction with his spray happy hands.

Nature is working double time to spread its bounty -- honeysuckle bushes overcome barn walls, scrotal shaped ladys slipper orchids blossom erotically in the forest, apples hang heavy from Nannys boughs. The most beautiful images though are found in Lusas love -- moth love. A career entomologist before she left the city to marry her farmer husband, Lusa continues to read about and study her favorite insects. She is especially fascinated at how moths use the language of scent to find one another, similar to pheromones in humans, and some even mate until death. These specific moths dont have mouths so they cannot speak nor eat. Their sole mission is to procreate, and they do so with abandon.

Coyotes are the other beautiful creatures at the center of the novel, appearing suddenly and disappearing just as fast, feeding rumors that frighten farmers and rally hunters from all over the country. Deanna dreams of finding the coyotes to prove that they exist and to celebrate the life they have managed to salvage despite mans attempt to drive them into extinction. In the first few pages of the novel Deanna meets one of those men, a wanderer from the West who has his gun handy, and whose mission she fears is to hunt the very thing she reveres. But even their tremendously different animal morals cannot squelch their immediate physical attraction, a lust for life that triggers her own internal war between body and mind.

The three storylines -- Deannas search for the elusive coyote, Lusas for a home, and Garnetts for his beloved chestnuts -- stream together side by side, sometimes skimming each others boundaries. A chair in Deannas chestnut cabin used to be in Lusas home. Nanny once loved Deannas father, and Garnett has a secret of his own that connects him to Lusa. Pheromones fly, coyotes howl, moths mate, humans bleed their emotions all over the tracts of land and forest during Kingsolvers prodigal summer.

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Prodigal Summer weaves together three stories of human love within a larger tapestry of lives inhabiting the forested mountains and struggling small farms of southern Appalachia. At the heart of these intertwined narratives is a den of coyotes that have recently migrated into the region. Deanna Wolfe, a reclusive wildlife biologist, watches the forest from her outpost in an isolated mountain cabin where she is caught off-guard by Eddie Bondo, a young hunter who comes to invade her most private spaces and confound her self-assured, solitary life. On a farm several miles down the mountain, another web of lives unfolds as Lusa Maluf Landowski, a bookish city girl turned farmers wife, finds herself unexpectedly marooned in a strange place where she must declare or lose her attachment to the land. And a few more miles down the road, a pair of elderly, feuding neighbors tend their respective farms and wrangle about God, pesticides, and the complexities of a world neither of them expected. Over the course of one humid summer, as the urge to procreate overtakes a green and profligate countryside, these characters find connections to one another and to the flora and fauna with which they necessarily share a place. Their discoveries are embedded inside countless intimate lessons of biology, the realities of small farming, and the final, urgent truth that humans are only one part of life on earth.

Lusa and Jewel (the latter is dying of cancer) are two characters in Barbara Kingsolver's latest novel, Prodigal Summer. In it, the author weaves together three stories of love within the lives of several humans inhabiting the forested mountains and small, struggling farms of the southern Appalachian region. There's Lusa, Lexington-born outsider and the widow of Cole (brother of the aforementioned Jewel); Deanna Wolfe, a reclusive wildlife biologist working for the Forest Service; and finally, Nannie Rawley and Garnett Walker, a pair of elderly neighbors who tend their respective farms and feud about the Almighty, the use of pesticides, and the unexpected complexities of the world they encounter on a daily basis. The following passage is part of a conversation between Nannie and Garnett

The ties that bind all these characters to each other, and to the plants and animals with which they share their land, are beautifully explored and strongly rendered in the author's accomplished prose. Kingsolver makes us truly see the coyote that slips like a dream through the woods surrounding the small farms, makes us feel with Deanna Wolfe the loss of four phoebe nestlings taken by a blacksnake from under the eaves of her cabin roof, gives us, as always in her writing, a wonderful sense of the world and the whole interconnectedness of creation. Prodigal Summer is the essence of life, distilled into a marvelous, eminently readable novel that will stay with you long after you've finished the last page. Be sure to read all about it!

Please note that this sample paper on Prodigal Summer is for your review only. In order to eliminate any of the plagiarism issues, it is highly recommended that you do not use it for you own writing purposes. In case you experience difficulties with writing a well structured and accurately composed paper on Prodigal Summer, we are here to assist you. Your cheap custom college paper on Prodigal Summer will be written from scratch, so you do not have to worry about its originality.

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Risk mapping to the Bullwhip Effect: VaR as a risk measure for supply chain

If you order your cheap custom essays from our custom writing service you will receive a perfectly written assignment on Risk mapping to the Bullwhip Effect: VaR as a risk measure for supply chain. What we need from you is to provide us with your detailed paper instructions for our experienced writers to follow all of your specific writing requirements. Specify your order details, state the exact number of pages required and our custom writing professionals will deliver the best quality Risk mapping to the Bullwhip Effect: VaR as a risk measure for supply chain paper right on time.

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One important mechanism for coordination in a supply chain is the information flows among members of the supply chain. These information flows have a direct impact on the production scheduling, inventory control and delivery plans of individual members in the supply chain. However, the distortion demand information, the retailer¡¦s orders do not coincide with the actual retail sales, tend to have larger variance orders to the supplier than sales to the buyer. This distortion of the demand in upstream activities is known as ¡§bullwhip effect¡¨(Lee et al. 17). Viewed more fundamentally, bullwhip refers to the amplification of end-customer order signals, whereby upstream replenishment demand and physical shipments exceed the original order quantity. The bullwhip effect, as defined by Lee et al.(17), is a phenomenon whereby

Information transferred in the form of orders tens to be distorted and can misguide upstream members in their inventory and production decisions¡K the variance of [replenishment] orders may be larger than that of sales [to end customers], and the distortion tends to increase as one moves upstream.

This concept paper is trying to apply the Value-at-risk (VaR) model in the supply chain management (SCM) and measure the bullwhip effect. VaR is being used in financial risk management as a measure of risk taken with a given confidence level over a specific time interval. VaR can be adopted to measure losses both on short term (1 day) and on long term (1 year) time horizon. In the financial applications only short term VaR are currently used, but there is no logical difficulty in using it also over period lager than the year in supply chain risk management. The purpose of applying VaR provides an approach to measure the supply chain risk under the uncertainty. Not only minimizes the cost and bullwhip effect, but also helps manager to make decision and adjust productivity base on an expected maximum loss under uncertainty demand.

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Use VaR to evaluate supply chain¡¦s performance by providing a risk quantification, expressed in monetary units, can helps supply chain managers to determine the most suitable risk management strategy for optimization supply chain.

Literature review

The bullwhip effect has been noted and assigned various causes across a range of academic disciplines. The first academic description of the bullwhip phenomenon is usually ascribed to Forrester(161). Forrester indicates that it is empirically common for the variance of perceived demand to the manufacturer to far exceed the variance of consumer demand and for seasonality to be larger for manufacturers than for retailers. Furthermore, he notes that the effect is amplified at each stage in the supply chain. He states that the principle cause of this is difficulties involving the information feedback loop between companies and systems are too complex for managerial intuition alone to ameliorate. Consequently, Forrester¡¦s remedy lies in understanding the system as a whole, and modeling that system with specific ¡§system dynamics¡¨ simulation models, so that managers can determine appropriate action.

Lee et al (17) have documented the effect in a number of specific businesses and have posited both causes and cures. In agreement with the economists, the bullwhip effect is purported to stem from rational, profit maximizing managers. Two specific sources are claimed for the effects that are relevant for this research

1. Forward buying practices for seasonal items by downstream wholesalers and retailers amplifies the seasonality seen by the manufacturers. As a general practice in the dry grocery industry, wholesales level buyers often induce larger seasonality for manufacturers by purchasing overly large quantities of product during the peak demand season for that product in an attempt to get reduced prices per unit.

. Batching of orders by downstream participants. Demand may be relatively continuous by consumers, but due to ordering costs or periodic ordering system runs it is batched early in the supply chain. This batching of orders induces demand variance up the supply chain that is not present at lower levels.

Towill (11) and Towill et al (1) use simulation techniques to evaluate the effects of various supply chain strategies on demand amplification. The strategies investigated are as follow

1. Eliminating the distribution echelon of the supply chain, by including the distribution function in the manufacturing echelon.

. Integrating the flow of information throughout the chain.

. Implementing a just-in-time (JIT) inventory policy to reduce time delays.

4. Improving the movement of intermediate products and materials by modifying the order quantity procedures.

5. Modifying the parameters of the existing order quantity procedures.

The objective of the simulation model is to determine which strategies are the most effective in smoothing the variations in the demand pattern.,

Research Question and Hypothesis

Uncertainty and distort demand are the major sources of bullwhip effect. For managers who wish to minimize unnecessary and costly variation in their supply chain, it is important to understand the specific causes of bullwhip. Uncertainty can broadly be identified as continuous changes in the echelon time-series for demand, distribution, production and inventory. Traditionally, researchers have limited their analyses and scope to minimum the cost within the effective supply chain. This paper will focus on the cause and effect between uncertainty demand and inventory by using the VaR model to calculate the maximum loss (cost) with distort or uncertainty demand. The key variables of this model are uncertainty demand order, distort order information upstream and lead-time.

The research hypotheses for this paper are

H1 The cost of bullwhip effect can be measured and expressed in a function with monetary units.

H The total cost of bullwhip effect would be the sum of bullwhip-related inventory swing costs, shortage cost, and profit margin lost due to poor availability.

H VaR model can optimize supply chain strategy under acceptable and expectable maximum loss over a certain period.

Methodology

The methodology for this study is based on the Value-at-risk (VaR) model to measure the risk of bullwhip effect in the supply chain management. This design focuses on uncertainty demand and the cost (loss) cause by bullwhip effect. Base on the supply chain ¡§Loss Function¡¨ model from Budiman (00). The minimum loss function expressed mathematically as below. Apply VaR to the loss function to calculate the maximum tolerable risk (loss). Use the result, acceptable risk, as the benchmark to adjust an optimization supply chain.

Please note that this sample paper on Risk mapping to the Bullwhip Effect: VaR as a risk measure for supply chain is for your review only. In order to eliminate any of the plagiarism issues, it is highly recommended that you do not use it for you own writing purposes. In case you experience difficulties with writing a well structured and accurately composed paper on Risk mapping to the Bullwhip Effect: VaR as a risk measure for supply chain, we are here to assist you. Your cheap research papers on Risk mapping to the Bullwhip Effect: VaR as a risk measure for supply chain will be written from scratch, so you do not have to worry about its originality.

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