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India the Next Emerging Tiger Economy in South East Asia !
(Under the guidance of Prof. A. G. Iyer)
- The Indian Economy
Order College Papers on The tiger
- Basic Strength of Currency and Monetary system
- Capital Markets
- Infrastructure
- Growing Sectors
- Comparative Analysis with China
- Role in ASEAN and SAARC
Submitted By Mahesh Shetty
Introduction
The Objective of the project is to understand where does India Stand as a Growing or a developing economy in the current scenario. The research done based on India's role in various bilateral treaties and associations. A small comparative analysis done is based on economies of Developing country like China which is the latest of all ‘Tiger Economies' and now nearly on the verge of becoming a developed country. The history of all Tiger Economies has been either it has experienced communism or the countries are still following monarchy that may be one of the reason as the final power or authority is under one Individual. India being a democracy, will it be able to become the next tiger economy in the coming few years? The Power being in the hand of one individual, under the threat of many political parties makes the final authority very unstable. At the same time give an much wider frame of ideas. Is India heading towards a Tiger Economy or not can be determined in the further presentation.
Scenario
India is the seventh largest and second most populous country in the world. A new spirit of economic freedom is now stirring in the country, bringing sweeping changes in its wake. A series of ambitious economic reforms aimed at deregulating the country and stimulating foreign investment has moved India firmly into the front ranks of the rapidly growing Asia Pacific region and unleashed the latent strengths of a complex and rapidly changing nation. India's process of economic reform is firmly rooted in a political consensus that spans her diverse political parties. Indias democracy is a known and stable factor, which has taken deep roots over nearly half a century. Importantly, India has no fundamental conflict between its political and economic systems. Its political institutions have fostered an open society with strong collective and individual rights and an environment supportive of free economic enterprise. India's time tested institutions offer foreign investors a transparent environment that guarantees the security of their long-term investments. These include a free and vibrant press, a judiciary that can and does overrule the government, a sophisticated legal and accounting system and a user-friendly intellectual infrastructure. Indias dynamic and highly competitive private sector has long been the backbone of its economic activity. Today, India is one of the most exciting emerging markets in the world. Skilled managerial and technical manpower that match the best available in the world and a middle class whose size exceeds the population of the USA or the European Union, provide India with a distinct cutting edge in global competition.
Trends in GDP
According to the Quick Estimates of National income for 000-01 provided by the Central Statistical Organisation on January 1, 00, the overall GDP growth rate decelerated significantly from 6.1 per cent in 1-000 to 4 per cent in 000-01. The gross value added in agriculture and allied sectors declined by 0. per cent in 000-01 compared with an increase of 1. per cent in 1-000.
Infrastructure
Power The generation of power has increased impressively in recent years. The installed capacity, which was 1400 MW at Independence in 147, has risen to 80000 MW. An important feature has been the improved investment and management profile, resulting in greater efficiency.
Coal Coal is the primary source for power generation in India. The country has huge reserves of coal - approximately 1 billion tonnes. A sufficient amount of lignite(brown coal used in thermal power stations) is also available.
Petroleum and Natural Gas The recent exploration and production activities in the country have led to a dramatic increase in the output of oil. The country currently produces over 0 million tonnes of crude oil, two thirds of which is from offshore areas, and imports another 0 million tonnes. Refinery production in terms of crude through output of the existing 1 refineries is about 5 million tonnes.
Natural gas production has also increased substantially in recent years, with the country producing over 17 billion cubic metres. Natural gas is rapidly becoming an important source of energy and feedstock for major industries. By the end of the Eighth Five-Year Plan, production is likely to reach 0 billion cubic metres.
Railroads The Indian Railways is the second largest rail network in the world. It has a total route length of about 6,000 km with a fleet of 7,000 passenger trains and 4,000 goods trains. It carries more than 11 million passengers' everyday, besides transporting about 0 million tonnes of freight annually. The network covers over 7,000 railway stations. Nearly 1.6 million workers keep the Indian Railways functioning round the clock.
The Indian Railways manufactures its own diesel and electric locomotives, coaches, components and signaling equipment.
Road Transport The roadways have grown rapidly in independent India. Ranging from the cross-country link of the national highways to the roads in the deepest interiors, the country has a road network of 1.8 million km. India also manufactures most of its motorised vehicles - cars, jeeps, trucks, vans, buses and a wide range of two-wheelers of various capacities. Indian scooters are exported widely, and are now also manufactured in Indonesia in a joint venture.
Shipping Endowed with a vast coastline of about 7,500 km, India uses its natural advantage for cargo transport by sea. Always a maritime nation, India owns merchant vessels totalling 6 million gross registered tonnage(GRT), making her one of the largest shipowners in Asia. With the Nhava Sheva Port operational, the country has 11 major and about 140 smaller active ports. Indias shipbuilding industry has the capacity to manufacture much of its requirements in the following classes tugs, barges, dredgers, coasters and merchant vessels.
Aviation India has one of the largest aviation industries in the Third World. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is Indias gigantic aeronautical organisation and one of the major aerospace complexes in the world.
Indias international carrier, Air India, with its Maharaja symbol, is well known for its quality service spanning the world. Within the country, five international airports and more than 88 other airports are linked by Indian Airlines. Vayudoot, an intermediate feeder airline already links more than 80 stations with its fleet of turbo-prop aircraft and it plans to build and expand its network to over 140 airports in the far-flung and remote areas of the country. Pawan Hans, a helicopter service, provides services in difficult terrain.
In 10, the Government adopted an open sky policy with a view to improving domestic services. Consequently, several private airlines are already operating in the country.
Telecommunications With rapid advances in technology, India now uses digital technology in telecommunications, deriving advantage from its ability to interface with computers. The present strategy focuses on a balanced growth of the network, rapid modernisation, a quantum jump in key technologies, increased productivity, and innovations in organisation and management. Moving towards self-reliance, besides establishing indigenous R&D in digital technology India has established manufacturing capabilities in both the Government and private sectors.
During the last four decades, a forty-fold growth has taken place in telecommunications. The National Telecom Policy was released in 14, where under, by 000 AD, another fivefold jump is planned, providing telephones in Indias half a million villages. Today there are 15,000 rural exchanges against 8,000 in 18. Every day 100-village panchayats are being connected; by March 1, 15 all the 0,000 panchayats had been covered.
Key Industries
Steel The iron and steel industry in India is over 1 years old. However, a concerted effort to increase the steel output was made only in the early years of planning. Three integrated steel plants were set up at Bhilai, Durgapur and Rourkela. Later two more steel plants, at Bokaro and Vishakhapatanam, were set up. Private sector plants, of which the Tata Iron and Steel Company (TISCO) is the biggest, have been allowed to raise their capacity.
Engineering and Machine Tools An Among the Third World country, India is a major exporter of heavy and light engineering goods, producing a wide range of items. The bulk of capital goods required for power projects, fertilizer, cement, steel and petro- chemical plants and mining equipment are made in India. The country also makes construction machinery, equipment for irrigation projects, diesel engines, tractors, transport vehicles, cotton textile and sugar mill machinery. The engineering industry has shown its capacity to manufacture large-size plants and equipment for various sectors like power, fertilizer and cement. Lately, air pollution control equipment is also being made in the country. The heavy electrical industry meets the entire domestic demand.
Electronics The electronics industry in India has been growing at the rate of 0% to 40% in the last few years. Between 185 and 11-, production of consumer electronic items increased from Rs. 10. billion to Rs. 1 billion. The total electronic industry recorded a production of Rs.105 billion in the same year, while electronic goods and services worth Rs.1.4 billion was exported. Some of the major items manufactured in India are computers, communication equipment, broadcasting and strategic electronics, television sets, microwave ovens and washing machines.
The compound growth of the computer industry has been 50% during the last five years. Almost the entire demand for floppy disk drives, dot-matrix printers, CRT terminals, keyboards, line printers and plotters is met from indigenous production. With the availability of trained technical manpower, computers have been identified as a major thrust area. Recognition for the Indian computer software industry has been global. Indian software enterprises have completed projects for reputed international organisations in 4 countries. There are export-oriented Software Technology Parks in India.
Textiles The textile industry in India is the largest single industry, accounting for around 0 per cent of the total industrial output and employing around 15 million people. It also accounts for 6 per cent of the countrys exports, again the largest single contribution.
Exports There are a number of autonomous bodies under the Ministry of Commerce connected with the development of exports and export promotion activities. There are five statutory commodity boards responsible for the production, development and export of tea, coffee, rubber, spices and tobacco. Export Inspection Council, Delhi a statutory body, is responsible for enforcement of quality control and compulsory pre-shipment inspection of various exportable commodities. Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi, a registered body, is Commerce engaged in training of personnel in modern techniques of international trade; organisation of research in problems of foreign trade; organisation of marketing research, area surveys, commodity surveys, and dissemination of information arising from its activities relating to research and market studies. Indian Institute of Packaging, Mumbai, a registered body set up on 14 May 166, undertakes research on raw materials for packaging industries, organises training programmes on packaging technologies and stimulates consciousness on the need for good packing, etc.
Indias exports growth between February and April 000 was the highest in Asia at 5.8 per cent.
Indias export growth was better to exports compared to Malaysia, which registered a .7 per cent growth, during the same period. During February-April Indias exports were worth 8. billion US dollars, while Malaysia has totaled 1.4 billion dollars.
Singapore exports at 6.1 billion dollars during the same period were nearly 10 per cent lower and that of Australias slid by per cent at 1 billion dollars.
The review showed the Philippines topping the export growth in Asia for the March-May period. It registered a 15. per cent growth during the period.
During the March-May period, Chinas exports at 45. billion dollars were lower by . per cent whereas Japans at 8.8 billion dollars was higher by 1.7 per cent.
Chinas GDP up 7. Percent in Jan-Sept This Year NBS
Chinas gross domestic product (GDP) reached 7.168 trillion Yuan (866 billion US dollars) in the first nine months of this year, up 7. percent year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.
Development of China
The Congress reaffirmed its commitment to speed up the all round development of the Western region of the country. This project is one important strategic decision of the Chinese government in the new century. This project covers a huge part of Chinese territory and population equals to creating another China. The development project covers 1 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities with an area of 6.8 million square kilometers occupying 71% of the whole land area of China. It involves 0 million people occupying 8.4% of the whole population with about 87% of Chinese ethnic minorities will directly benefit from this great project. In the first 10 years, only the construction of the infrastructure will cost US$ 0 billion. Apart from the benefits to China, this project will cause significant repercussions in the international community especially to the neighboring countries. India, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan have contiguous border with China. During the five decades of the Sino-Indian conflict China has built up close relations with other neighbors of India such as Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. These relations have deepened based on the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence. China is policies towards South Asia have assumed greater importance. However, Sino-Indian relations have also been moving towards normalization. However, the pending agenda of differences and the ambitions of the two most populous Asian countries have accentuated the competitive aspect of their bilateral relations. Furthermore given India is hegemonic ambitions in South Asia and China's principled opposition to hegemony, the other countries of South Asia have developed good relations with China as a means of restraint on the India.
Indo ASEAN Trade
In the year 1 India became the sectoral member of ASEAN and by the year 16 India was a full dialogue partner in the Group. India has had close cultural and economic ties with Southeast Asian countries throughout history. ASEANs political and strategic importance in the larger Asia-Pacific region and its potential to become a major partner of India in the area of trade and investment have encouraged India to seek closer linkages with these countries. After 11 however, a conscious effort was begun to reach out to these countries as part of our Look East policy. The fact that the Southeast Asian countries had consolidated themselves into a dynamic regional grouping, ASEAN, accelerated our efforts. With the eastward expansion of ASEAN to include Myanmar, India and ASEAN are no longer just maritime neighbours but share a land boundary of over 1600 km.Currently, India is closely collaborating with ASEAN countries in various fields such as trade and investment, science and technology, tourism, human resource development and transport & infrastructure. Cooperation with ASEAN countries in various sectors is either through joint projects, e.g., joint study in the HRD sector or through research, training and attachment of experts from India and ASEAN countries. ASEAN has greatly appreciated the premium placed by EAM (in an intervention at the PMC 000) on the actual delivery on proposals and agreed projects.
A training programme in advanced software techniques for 4 ASEAN candidates at NIIT organised by India in 000 was greatly appreciated by ASEAN; they requested that such training programmes be organised on an annual basis.
In biotechnology, cooperation includes projects in plant and animal biotechnology and establishment of an ASEAN-India Bioinformatics Network. Besides, it has been decided at the highest level to establish an India-ASEAN Institute of Biotechnology (IAIB) in Jakarta, for carrying out R&D in identified areas of relevance.
In advanced materials, projects in rare earth magnets and thermal and wear resistant surface coatings have been completed. It is proposed to expand these project, with a focus on the realisation of commercial benefits.
Cooperation activities through Cooperation activities through
• ASEAN-India Working Group on Trade and Investment ASEAN-India Working Group on Trade and Investment
• ASEAN - India Business Council ASEAN - India Business Council
• ASEAN - India Tourism Cooperation ASEAN - India Tourism Cooperation
• ASEAN - India Working Group on Science and ASEAN - India Working Group on Science and Technology
• ASEAN - India ASEAN - India Informatics Training Training Centre
• ASEAN - India Human Resources Development ASEAN - India Human Resources Development Cooperation study Cooperation study
• ASEAN - India Lecture Series and ASEAN - India Fund
• Far from a breakthrough level Far from a breakthrough level
two way trade US$8.0 billion, which is 10.05% of India's total two way trade US$8.0 billion,
which is 10.05% of India's total trade and 1.8% of trade and 1.8% of ASEAN's total trade (18) total trade (18)
Trade basket remains traditional & low value Trade basket remains traditional & low value
Lacks dynamism & growth Lacks dynamism & growth
• negligible investment & capital flows Negligible investment & capital flows
India's early initiatives lost momentum during the eighties India's early initiatives lost momentum during the eighties
ASEAN's current initiatives haven't taken off current initiatives haven't taken off
• Need for a beginning Need for a beginning
India's Role in SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation)
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has now completed thirteen years since its establishment on 8 December 185. From relatively modest beginnings, SAARC members have been gradually expanding their cooperation to cover new areas of common interest.
The first SAARC Information Ministers Meeting which was held in Dhaka in April 18 adopted an Action Plan for strengthening cooperation through, inter alia, greater interaction amongst media personnel, cooperation amongst news agencies, free flow of newspapers, journals and books within the region and reduction of hostile propaganda.
The SAARC Convention on Suppression of Terrorism was signed in November 187 and came into effect on nd August 188 after ratification by all Member States. Under its provisions, Member States are committed to extradite or prosecute alleged terrorists, thus preventing them from enjoying safe havens. Regional Cooperation is also envisaged in preventive action to combat terrorism.
The SAARC Convention on Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances was signed in November 10 and came into force on 15 September 1 following ratification by all Member States. The SAARC Drug Offences Monitoring Desk has been established at Colombo to exchange information and intelligence on drug offences.
The operationalisation of the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) in December 15, following ratification of the SAPTA Agreement by all SAARC countries has evoked much interest. Achievement of a South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) has also become a part of the SAARC Agenda. A modest beginning First Round of SAPTA Negotiations with tariff was made in the concessions exchanged on 484 Tariff-Lines
The Second Round of Trade Negotiations under SAPTA which concluded in November, 16, was more substantial with 175 tariff lines covered under concessional tariffs as the following matrix shows
. Concessions given
by India Concession received
by India
Bangladesh 51 04
Pakistan 75 0
Sri Lanka
Maldives 1 1
Nepal, Bhutan Separate bilateral arrangements.
Total 11 456
The Third Round of Trade Negotiations concluded on rd November, 18. A total of 456 tariff lines were covered under concessional tariffs and India offered more than half the concessions as the following table shows
. Concessions given
by India Concessions received
by India
Bangladesh 1758 60
Pakistan 18 18
Sri Lanka 5 5
Maldives 116 68
Nepal, Bhutan Separate bilateral arrangements.
Total 117 617
Tiger Economies of Asia
The ‘Asian tigers' have attracted attention largely due to their high, long-term growth rates. Many of the tigers have maintained growth rates of 8-10 per cent over a number of years. For example, South Korea's growth rate is currently 8 per cent even though its GDP per head is now over $10,000, and Singapore has recently achieved growth of up to 10 per cent p.a. even though its GDP per head is approaching that of the USA.
There is general agreement that high savings have permitted very high levels of investment in the tiger economies. These is less consensus as to whether the low share of GDP spent by the governments has been a significant factor in growth, or whether social stability and cohesion has been important.
Politically, many of the tiger economies have a recent history of military rule. However, a number of them have liberalised in recent years and Taiwan, Thailand, and South Korea are now amongst the most democratic countries in Asia.
Where is India HeadingAsian Tiger or Tortoise?
The ADB said India is currently benefiting from a resilient industrial sector, a reform-minded government and a software industry and services sector that are taking part in the New Economy boom. The ADB projects India will post 7% inflation adjusted growth in 000 and 001, outpacing China, which it projects will grow at a 6.5% rate in 000 and a 6% rate in 001. The last time growth in India outpaced China was in 10.
In a report titled India Trots While China Hobbles, CLSA Global Emerging Markets, a Hong Kong-based brokerage firm, says China will struggle in the years ahead tackling the thorny problem of inefficient, over-manned state-owned enterprises at the same time as trying to resuscitate a broken banking system. It predicts growth of 7% in India in 001, compared with % to % in China.
A decade after launching free market reforms, the Indian economy is still a dot on the map when it comes to attracting foreign investment.
When it comes to luring foreign investment, India trails far behind China, which attracts $0-$40 billion annually. New Delhi, by contrast, draws a scant $-4 billion.
While India can boast of many positives --- rising exports, growing industrial output, buoyant tax revenues and large foreign exchanges revenues --- it also has a string of negatives.
"We don't have the required infrastructure yet to absorb the kind of money flowing into China as foreign direct investment," said Nikhil Khattau, CEO of Sun F&C Asset Management, which has over Rs. 10 billion ($08 million) invested in Indian markets. India's privatization program, one of the few areas of real progress in its economic reform drive, is stalled because of a deep cabinet rift over the pace of the sell-offs.
Analysts say the government must press ahead with aggressive privatization of state-run firms, deregulation, reform of archaic labor laws, reduction of its huge fiscal deficit and lowering of tariff barriers that are still among the highest in the world.
"India can be a roaring tiger if all these problems are taken care of," said Amit Mitra, secretary general of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI).
Economists say reforms are crucial if India is to increase growth from 5.4 percent and reduce poverty in a country, whose population of more than one billion is second biggest after China.
A World Bank study estimates eight percent of the world's poor live in northern Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state with 166 million people. It says the population risks falling further into the poverty trap if reforms fail to take off.
"The Indian economy is a tiger because of the sheer intelligence and prowess of the countrys technical manpower. It is a peacock because the country has the largest showbiz in the world."-The Hindustan Times (November , 00).
Reference
1. http//www.hindustantimes.com
. http//www-hoover.stanford.edu
. http//www.csis.org
4. http//www.people.com.cn
5. http//www.worldeconnomy.com
6. http//www.ciionline.org
7. http//meadev.nic.in
8. http//indiabudget.nic.in/
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